Investors shed shares of Blackberry maker

Shares of Blackberry maker Research in Motion slumped more than 16 percent Friday with future revenue coming into question and a declining number of subscribers.
RIM's stock jumped initially Thursday when the Canadian company released better-than-expected third-quarter results and a stronger cash position.
Shares reversed course during a conference call later, when executives said that the company won't generate as much revenue from telecommunications carriers once it releases the new BlackBerry 10.
RIM's stock had been on a three-month rally in which the stock more than doubled from levels not previously seen since 2003.
"Despite a solid quarter, the stock is trading down due to the introduction of a lower enterprise service tier and fears that RIM will not receive monthly services revenues for consumer BB10 subscribers," said Jefferies analyst Peter Misek. He thinks RIM has offered carriers a lower-priced option in exchange for a bigger purchase commitment for the new device. He kept his "Hold" rating.
Sterne Agee analyst Shaw Wu kept maintained a "Neutral" rating on the stock, but lowered his earnings estimates, saying he continued to be concerned about RIM's ability to compete with Apple and Google.
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RIM’s biggest problem: It’s still scrambling to catch yesterday’s hottest mobile app

The moment I first realized that RIM (RIMM) was truly in enormous trouble was back in 2010 when I heard then co-CEO Jim Balsillie downplay the importance of apps. Yes, you read that correctly. Balsillie actually told attendees at a Web 2.0 summit in 2010 that the Internet itself was the most important “app” for mobile devices and contended that the “Web needs a platform that allows you to use your existing Web content, not apps.” My feelings on this matter were only solidified when I attended the BlackBerry World conference in May 2011 and watched RIM executives proudly announce that the Playbook tablet would soon get its own version of Angry Birds sometime in the near future. In reality, Angry Birds didn’t release for BlackBerry until late December of that year, or two full years after it was originally released for iOS.
[More from BGR: WhatsApp goes free for iPhone for a limited time]
All of which brings me back to RIM’s current state: Despite the great looking hardware and user interface pictures we’ve seen from new BlackBerry 10 smartphones so far, the company still has an app problem. I was reminded of this when I read a post over at CrackBerry titled, “There’s still a chance for WhatsApp on BlackBerry 10.” The issue here isn’t whether RIM eventually does or doesn’t get WhatsApp on its platform — the issue is that RIM always seems to be one step behind when it comes to getting the hottest apps of the day on its devices.
[More from BGR: BlackBerry 10 browser smokes iOS 6 and Windows Phone 8 in comparison test [video]]
The most absurd example of this, of course, is Instagram. Yes, it’s very likely that BlackBerry 10 will support the popular photo-sharing app right out of the gate given the company’s partnership with Instagram owner Facebook (FB). But we still have no official confirmation that Instagram will be a BlackBerry 10 app just over a month before the new platform launches, and this is symbolic of the fact that RIM is always stuck at the back of line when it comes to app developers’ priorities.
Simply put, RIM can’t possibly hope to compete with Android, iOS or even Windows Phone 8 if its users will always wonder if they’ll be able to do all the cool things with their phones that their friends can do. In the unpredictable Wild West of today’s app market, where new apps seemingly go viral overnight to become global powerhouses, platform developers need to make sure they have quick and simple ways for app developers to port over their software. And until RIM figures out a way to get this done, it still has no shot in the long term.
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Apple has achieved its highest ever smartphone share in U.S.

According to the latest data from Kantar Worldpanel ComTech, Apple’s (AAPL) smartphone market share in the United States recently reached an all time high. In the past 12 weeks, the company is said to have captured a 53.3% share of the United States smartphone market. Apple’s increased market share comes in the wake of the iPhone 5 launch, although things aren’t quite as good for the company overseas. Google’s (GOOG) Android operating system is seeing unprecedented success in Europe and recently garnered a 61% share of the market, an increase from 51.8% a year ago.
[More from BGR: RIM’s biggest problem: It’s still scrambling to catch yesterday’s hottest mobile app]
Samsung’s (005930) success has continued over the last 12 weeks and the company captured a 44.3% share of the European smartphone market. Apple took second place with a 25.3% share while HTC (2498), Sony (SNE) and Nokia (NOK) are stuck in a battle for third place.
[More from BGR: WhatsApp goes free for iPhone for a limited time]
“Although Windows sales in the U.S. remain subdued, Nokia is managing to claw back some of its share in Great Britain through keenly priced Lumia 800 and 610 prepay deals,” Dominic Sunnebo, global consumer insight director at Kantar Worldpanel ComTech, said. “The next period will prove crucial in revealing initial consumer reactions to the Nokia 920 and HTC Windows 8X devices.”
The number of consumers who own a smartphone in Great Britain also hit a high of 60% in the latest quarter, while smartphones accounted for 83% of all mobile phone sales in the past 12 weeks.
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Nokia, RIM settle old disputes in new patent pact

 Nokia Corp. and Canadian smartphone rival Research In Motion have agreed on a new patent licensing pact which will end all existing litigation between the two struggling companies, the Finnish firm said Friday.
The agreement includes a "one-time payment and on-going payments, all from RIM to Nokia," Nokia said, but did not disclose "confidential" terms.
Last month, Nokia sued the Blackberry maker for breach of contract in Britain, the United States and Canada over cellular patents they agreed in 2003. RIM claimed the license — which covered patents on "standards-essential" technologies for mobile devices— should also have covered patents for non-essential parts, but the Arbitration Institute of Stockholm Chamber of Commerce ruled against RIM's claims.
Major manufacturers of phones and wireless equipment are increasingly turning to patent litigation as they jockey for an edge to expand their share of the rapidly growing smartphone market.
Nokia is among leading patent holders in the wireless industry. It has already received a $565 million royalty payment from Apple Inc. to settle long-standing patent disputes and filed claims in the United States and Germany alleging that products from HTC Corp. and Viewsonic Corp. infringe a number of its patents.
The company says it has invested €45 billion ($60 billion) during the last 20 years in research and development and has one of the wireless industry's largest IPR portfolios claiming some 10,000 patent families.
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Fan-made tweak gives Apple a blueprint for better multitasking in iOS 7 [video]

In recent years, Android has continued to get better and better with new and useful features. At the same time, iOS has become rather stagnant and in many ways has fallen behind. iOS 6 did bring new features, but its subsequent updates also introduced a slew of issues. What’s most disappointing about iOS is that it still doesn’t allow users to quickly adjust basic things such as brightness, Wi-Fi, Bluetooth, etc. without having to dive into layers of menus. However, a forum member at The Verge recently mocked up a concept for a redesigned app switcher and managed to get a few developers to help out on a project to enhance iOS multitasking. The result is a jailbreak tweak that improves upon iOS’s current multitasking system in such an intelligent (and elegant) way that Apple (AAPL) should just hire the developers and incorporate it into iOS 7. See for yourself in the video below.
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Newtown shooting cranks up Canada's gun-control debate

Though the massacre in Newtown, Conn., last week has drawn sympathy from all over the world, it has a particular resonance in Canada.
The shooting at Sandy Hook Elementary School that left 26 victims dead, including 20 children, comes just a week after the 23rd anniversary of Canada's own "Montreal Massacre," which reshaped the country's gun laws. Moreover, it occurred even as Canadians recently renewed calls for stricter controls on firearms access here amid ongoing efforts by the Conservative government to ease firearms laws.
Prime Minister Stephen Harper offered his condolences to the Newtown victims' families while calling the shootings “senseless.” But critics here accuse Mr. Harper's government of practically standing alone among Western nations in rolling back gun-control protections in recent years – most noticeably by scrapping the "long-gun" registry, which logged all of the country's rifles and shotguns, in 2011.
Think you know the Second Amendment? Take our quiz.
“It has been a useful issue for the Conservative government over the last few years; the registry for a long time was a symbol of government waste,” says Blair Brown, an associate professor of history at Saint Mary’s University in Halifax and the author of “Arming and Disarming: A History of Gun Control in Canada.”
There are an estimated 8 million legally owned guns in Canada, representing about 18 percent of Canadian households. Canada's gun laws are more strict than those of the US. Canadian federal law requires that all restricted and prohibited weapons – including all handguns – be registered with the government. Canada also requires licenses to buy, own, and use firearms.
Canada's strict gun regime, including the now repealed long-gun registry, was introduced by the Liberal government in the mid-1990s, in large part prompted by the Montreal Massacre, in which, on Dec. 6, 1989, Marc Lepine shot and killed 14 women at the Montreal's École Polytechnique before killing himself.
Montreal was also the setting for another school shooting in 2006, at Dawson College, where one student was killed and 19 were wounded before the killer turned his guns on himself. And Toronto has increasingly been the setting in recent years of messy gun battles and shootings in crowded public places, often with guns that have either been smuggled in from the US or stolen from registered gun owners.
HAS GUN-LAW RELAXATION GONE TOO FAR...
Canadian gun-control advocates argue that still more restrictions are needed. They point out that the type of hunting rifle used by Lepine in Montreal is sold by Canadian Tire, an iconic Canadian chain of hardware stores – much as critics of America’s gun culture note that the Bushmaster semi-automatic rifle, used in the Sandy Hook shootings, is readily sold by chains like Wal-Mart.
And Heidi Rathjen, who witnessed the Montreal Massacre in 1989 and is now part of a group of survivors and family members of the tragedy who advocate for stricter gun controls, says that rifles, shotguns, and many assault-style weapons remain easily accessible in Canada.
To Ms. Rathjen, the Harper government has done more to erode gun laws than simply scrap the long-gun registry: “They’ve weakened provisions around licensing. While it remains true that you need a license to purchase a gun, a seller no longer has to check the validity of your permit.”
“The fact that there’s been terrible shootings and gun-related deaths has never made a difference. They’ve been very uncompromising in their position, they’ve done everything they could to please the gun lobby, and they plan to do more,” adds Rathjen.
Still, the government has shown signs that there are limits to how far it'll go. Earlier this month, on the anniversary of the Montreal Massacre, the prime minister distanced himself from several recommendations of the government-appointed Canadian Firearms Advisory Committee – a group comprised almost entirely of gun enthusiasts and advocates – when it was reported that the committee recommended eliminating all together the most restrictive “prohibited” category of firearms – which includes automatic assault rifles.
“The government has absolutely no intention of weakening that category of protection,” Harper was quoted as saying in the Toronto Star.
Another conservative recommendation that would see gun licensing go from five-years to a 10-year renewal term – which opposition critics pointed out would provide less opportunity to do background and mental health checks of registered gun owners – was later dropped. And mental health and gun ownership have gained renewed traction as details of the Sandy Hook killer come out.
... OR NOT FAR ENOUGH?
But to Canada’s gun lobby, the existing licensing and registration regime is restrictive enough. According to Blair Hagen, with Canada’s National Firearms Association, if the government recognized the right of citizens to bear arms, it would make any debate about their safe use and ownership a lot easier.
“All of the emphasis has been put on controlling and limiting the access to the firearms, and in some ways I can understand that,” says Mr. Hagen. “But the effects and failures of that system have to be accounted for now. How can you stop a determined person from getting access to these things? Seems to me if they’re determined, no law is going to stop them.”
Like their southern counterparts, the US National Rifle Association, the NFA is reluctant to talk about gun control in light of the Newtown tragedy. “Is this the time to talk about those things, after a massive tragedy like this? I don’t think so. I think it’s got to be done a lot more rationally, and done with a purpose rather than a reaction,” says Hagen.
But Rathjen questions whether the NFA and others opposed to gun control will ever commit to such a discussion willingly. She points out that Harper took a hard line on an assault-weapons ban – but only after the CFAC’s recommendations came to light after gun-control advocates pressed the matter, and in the midst of Canada marking the anniversary of its saddest chapter of gun violence.
“I don’t know if this makes any difference to them – the human tragedy of the Sandy Hook shootings – because they’ve ignored the evidence, they’ve ignored the opinions of experts that say that the long-gun registry is essential, that say that it saves lives, that it helps reduce gun-related crime,” she says.
To Dr. Brown, it’s not inconceivable that the Harper government may want to further weaken gun regulations in deference to its base, but Sandy Hook may prevent this.
“They wouldn’t dare try and do anything because of the horrific nature of this shooting," he says. "But time will tell.”
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Palestinians begin returning to Yarmouk refugee camp in Syria

• A daily summary of global reports on security issues.
Refugees have started returning to the Yarmouk Palestinian refugee camp in Syria after fighting between rebels and government-allied forces sent them fleeing, but the status of the Palestinian refugees, along with hundreds of thousands of others displaced by the Syrian conflict, remains a top concern for observers outside the country.
The Associated Press reports that, according to the Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, "hundreds of people have returned" to Yarmouk after fighting between rebels and forces loyal to President Bashar al-Assad drove out as many as two-thirds of the camp's 150,000 residents by United Nations estimates.
The battle at Yarmouk, located in southern Damascus, began Dec. 14, as pro-Assad Palestinian fighters attacked anti-Assad Palestinian rebels based in the camp. Al Jazeera English reported yesterday that although Syrian troops did not participate in the fighting within the camp, they provided support to the pro-Assad fighters, cutting off the camp from the outside and launching air strikes into the camp, which reportedly killed at least eight people on Dec. 16.
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Al Jazeera noted that pro-Assad newspaper Al-Watan reported earlier this week that the government was preparing for a major assault on Yarmouk.
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AP adds that while fighting has eased, some rebels still remain in the camp. Damascus-based Palestinian official Khaled Abdul-Majid told the AP that Cairo-based Palestinian leaders are negotiating the rebels' exit. Palestinian refugees in Syria have been divided over which side to ally themselves with in the ongoing civil war.
Hundreds of thousands of refugees have been affected by the conflict. Some 1 million people are expected to have fled Syria by mid-2013, and another 2 million have already been displaced within the country, reports BBC. The UN has issued an appeal for $1.5 billion for relief efforts in Syria.
The UN has registered more than half a million refugees so far, with between 2,000 and 3,000 arriving every day in countries neighboring Syria.
"Unless these funds come quickly, we will not be able to fully respond to the life-saving needs of civilians who flee Syria every hour of the day – many in a truly desperate condition," Panos Moumtzis of the UNHCR said.
"We are constantly shocked by the horrific stories refugees tell us," he added. "Their lives are in turmoil. They have lost their homes and family members. By the time they reach the borders, they are exhausted, traumatised and with little or no resources to rely on.
UN officials said they would need to provide food, shelter, medicines and even schools for them over the next year.
Syria is home to nearly half a million Palestinian refugees living in 12 camps around the country, including Yarmouk, according to the AP. Al Arabiya reports that Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas yesterday called on the UN to help the Palestinian refugees displaced by the fighting in Syria to return to Gaza and the West Bank.
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Lessons from the Maya prophesy – whether the world 'ends' or not

Through a clearing in the jungle, visitors catch their first glimpse of the ancient Maya ruins of Yaxchilan in Mexico's southern Chiapas state. Stubborn vines have penetrated the walls of the Maya temple of the underworld. Bats hang in the cool vaulted ceiling and spiders scurry around the structure where ancient nobles once meditated and prayed to their gods.
Here, like across the Maya civilization, abandoned cities hidden in the rainforests of Mexico and Central America stand as reminders of the collapse of one of the most sophisticated cultures of its time – one that, a thousand years later, no scholar fully understands.
And if some Maya thinkers and their acolytes are correct, the same fate could be in store for Yaxchilan's nearest town, Frontera Corozal, the rest of Mexico, and even the entire globe: They believe the Mayas predicted that the world would end this December.
RELATED: Think you know Mexico? Take our quiz!
Most serious thinkers dismiss the prophecy as plain wrong, a meme that has spread around the globe – today there are more than 2,000 books on the subject – with the help of New Age thinkers, science fiction writers, and misguided academics.
Despite rigorous attempts at debunking the prophecy, including recent discoveries in an overgrown jungle in Guatemala that reveals the Mayas counted thousands of years into the future beyond the much talked about Dec. 21 "cut off date," a few are still on board with the apocalyptic forecast. Some 10 percent of people surveyed worldwide earlier this year say the Maya calendar could signify the world's end in 2012, according to a poll from Ipsos Global Public Affairs, conducted for Reuters.
Indeed, most of the buzz these days surrounding “demise” is not about what happened 1,000 years ago, so much as the belief in a coming apocalypse just days away. But at least a few residents in Frontera Corozal, a border town separated from Guatemala by the Usumacinta River, are trying to shift attention to the same problems that likely contributed to the Maya collapse – such as environmental damage and greed – to provide lessons to live more sustainably today.
“The same destruction from then is happening now. We are doing it again,” says Yaxchilan tour guide Francisco Centeño, who is part of a cooperative that is running campaigns to teach children to protect the environment. “To want more homes and bigger homes, we ruin our forests, and ourselves. It is the human nature to want more and more.”
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MYSTERY
The Maya civilization dates to the Preclassic period beginning in 2000 BC, and reached its grandeur during the Classic period, from AD 250 to 900, during which the Mayas had developed the written language and became masters at calendars, counting time, and outlining astronomical systems.
Yaxchilan is nowhere near as large or significant as Tikal in today's modern Guatemala or Chichen Itza in Mexico's Yucatan. But it was among one of the most important centers of the Maya world along the Usumacinta.
Deep in the jungle, Yaxchilan is reachable by wooden boats that ply the Usumacinta River, where a crocodile suns on the banks on a recent day.
It's comprised of over some 120 buildings, but only a tenth have been excavated. The rest are buried underneath the dense forest, where visitors can spot spider and howler monkeys and toucans.
It was left abandoned after 900 AD, and like the other major Maya centers spanning Mexico to Central America, no one knows exactly why: warfare, flooding, deforestation, greed, or a combination of all.
Their demise evokes a sense of mystery, which helped the idea germinate that the Mayas held ancient wisdom. They left a highly sophisticated civilization, says University of Kansas Maya scholar John Hoopes, who has spent a decade uncovering the origins of the end-of-the-world prophecy, but very little of Maya writing, for example, could be deciphered until the 1970s.
“It opened up the door to lots of speculation,” Dr. Hoopes says. Even after hieroglyphic writing was deciphered on the four surviving pre-Hispanic codices, as well as carved on stone monuments, incised on jade jewelry, and painted on beautiful ceramic vessels, myths have persisted.
It was not just science fiction writers and New Agers fascinated by the concept of the end of the world. The December 2012 date arose from traditional readings of the Maya “Long Count” calendar of cycles of 13 intervals, or “bak'tuns,” each of which lasted 144,000 days. Recently discovered murals at Xultun, Guatemala by Boston University archeologists and texts at nearby Palenque suggest that the current cycle of bak’tuns may not end with the 13th but the 20th, which is not until AD 4772, more than 2,500 years from now.
And nowhere was it said that the end of the 13th bak'tun meant the end of the world anyway; it simply signified the end of a period of time, perhaps comparable to moving from 1999 to a new century in 2000.
“Since the time of Columbus, there has been talk of the end of the world. However, it is a European introduction based on Christian beliefs, not an ancient, indigenous Maya prophecy,” says Hoopes.
'BUILD BIGGER AND BIGGER'
New research is not the only force that dismisses an “apocalypse.” Mayas in Frontera Corozal say this December might represent an important change of era for their ancestors, but the now deeply-Christian community discounts that they predicted the world's end.
“No one knows when the world is going to end,” says Sandra Lopez Guzman, a waitress.
“Only God knows,” adds Mayra Cortes.
They have been banking, however, on an end-of-the-world craze as a boost in tourism. The Mexican government launched a “Maya World” campaign this year to draw tourists in Mexico and from the US, Europe, and Asia to the five southeastern-most states that hold dozens of Maya ruins.
In Yaxchilan, tour guide Juan Arcos says he hasn't seen a boost either, just a few tourists from Europe insistent about the world's impending doom. Mr. Arcos says he wishes that they, as well as the residents of his own community, were more focused on the past, where there is an environmental lesson to learn, he says. “They ruined their forests to build bigger, and bigger temples,” he says.
Frontera Corozal sits on the edges of the Lacandon Jungle, one of the most biodiverse swaths of rainforest in the region. But only 10 percent of the original forest remains, threatened by clearing and population growth. Mr. Centeño, the tour guide, says residents have little environmental education, and he and Mr. Arcos are trying to instill a sense of consciousness in children.
They work at a micro level, leading garbage collection programs around town or cleaning up natural springs and the banks of the river. They have plans to build a center to promote their language, Ch'ol, and their ancient customs, to help residents become better stewards of their land, especially the community's youths. “Children are easier to mold, they aren't so stubborn in their ways,” says Centeño.
PARALLELS?
Most might not connect the dots between the Maya demise and the mythology surrounding their apocalyptic predictions: They are two separate things. But Hoopes says they are linked by the idea that the "end of the world" is about human struggle. The myth helps humans better understand their motivations and the consequences of actions, he says.
“When we make up myths they are usually to help us accomplish something ourselves, myths always have a purpose,” Hoopes says. “The myths being made up about the Mayas are not about the Mayas, they are about us, helping us to make the right decisions.”
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Syrian rebel infighting could take dangerous turn if Assad falls

In recent weeks, a number of opposition fighters in Aleppo have come to see the fall of the Assad government as only a matter of time. But bringing down the unpopular president may be easy in comparison to unifying an opposition that at times seems held together by little more than members' shared hatred of President Bashar al-Assad.
Without him, its often unclear what will hold the disparate armed and civilian rebel groups together.
Last month, that much-needed moment of unity seemed to be on the not-so-distant horizon with the creation of the new Syrian opposition council in Qatar. Inside Syria, a number of Free Syrian Army fighters and civilians living in opposition controlled areas welcomed the news, praising the appointment of coalition leaders with recent time on the ground inside Syria.
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But like many moments of optimism inside wartime Syria, it was short-lived. A week after the announcement of the new coalition, a group of Free Syrian Army commanders in Aleppo came together to announce that they rejected it and had decided to create their own coalition that was now calling for the creation of an Islamic state in Syria.
“The real Islam is based on human rights and justice so what we want in a new state is justice. We want the shariah to be the constitution and apply shariah law, such as cutting off the hand of thieves,” says Mohammad Abdu, a leader of Liwa Towheed, one of the largest FSA units in Aleppo in an interview with The Christian Science Monitor the day after the meeting.
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Civilians working with the opposition inside Syria had not been represented in the meeting, but Mr. Abdu says he was “certain” they would agree. They did not. Muthana al Naser, spokesman for the Free Lawyers of Aleppo called it a “hasty decision” that did not “represent the revolution.”
The moment of unity that many had hoped for seemed to have slipped away before it ever had a chance to take hold. And the fracturing continued.
TODAY'S BRIGADES ARE TOMORROW'S MILITIAS
In the days that followed, the many commanders at the meeting calling for an Islamic state said they’d been duped by Islamists at the meeting into making the statement and did not actually agree with the new announcement.
“It was a meeting to talk about strategy and at the last minute Jabhat al-Nusra asked everyone if they wanted an Islamic state. We had to say yes because we’re Muslims,” says Abu Mohammad, commander of the opposition’s Dar al-Wafa Battalion and a member of the Muslim Brotherhood. “It was a wrong step. Many of the battalions denounced the statement afterward.”
The creation of the Qatar coalition, followed by the reactionary response from the Aleppo commanders and the disagreement among the commanders about the statement, underscores the difficulty of creating a unified leadership capable of outlining a path for the future of Syria.
This is likely to prove exceedingly problematic if the uprising succeeds in removing Assad from power. The country must then create a plan for reintegrating those who fought in the FSA. Many fighters say they will return to civilian life once Assad falls, but with no clear goal for a post-Assad Syria, it remains unclear if that will happen. It’s possible that some fighters could feel disenfranchised in a new state and once again pick up arms.
“We’re very happy to call them brigades and battalions today, but tomorrow they’ll be militias,” says Aram Nerguizian, a Syria expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “When the dust settles they will still have to question what their fortunes will look like and, in some cases, the remaining part of the armed groups in what will be a country filled with warlordism and fiefdoms and new networks of patronage along communal, geographic, and tribal lines.”
TAINTING THE RANKS OF THE FSA
Among civilians in Aleppo, there are already concerns that some FSA units take unilateral actions while claiming to represent a population that has no say in the making of the rebel groups’ plans or policies. This behavior has triggered fears about what will happen after the fall of Assad and whether FSA leaders and their men will be ready to willingly put down their weapons when that time comes.
Regular protests against the Assad regime now also target corrupt elements of the FSA, says activist Wael Abu Mariam.
The group is still widely granted hero status throughout rebel-controlled parts of Syria, but many say ill-intentioned individuals have crept into its ranks since the uprising began.
There is also some concern that FSA groups may start to turn against one another as they gain a larger share of control and are confronted with the challenges of rebuilding the state, causing more squabbles like the recent one over who controls the border. In his neighborhood in Aleppo alone, Mr. Mariam counts at least 11 different FSA groups.
“Each one of them is trying to make itself bigger and bigger without any concern for who they recruit,” he says. “I think they’re getting bigger to fight each other in the future.”
Despite such concerns, most Syrians say its still to early to despair about a post-Assad future. Though a number of ideological disagreements persist without any apparent solution, activists and rebel military leaders stress that at this point they’re still just theoretical disagreements, and ultimately a democratic vote will be what determines the future of a new government in Syria.
“For 40 years the Assad regime has tried to suppress Islam and now we want people to have a choice,” says Abu Ahmad the leader of an FSA unit in Aleppo. “Any person who is honest should lead this country. I want justice and democracy and an election to choose the new leader. Me and the rest of this battalion are okay with whatever democracy brings us, whether it’s a Christian leader, a Kurdish leader, or whoever.”
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Pressure mounts on Obama to change tactics on Iran

Arguing that further sanctions "are unlikely to stop Iran's nuclear pursuits," a group of Iran experts and senior former officials are calling on the White House to pursue realistic, "serious, sustained negotiations" with Tehran that they say are the best chance to prevent a nuclear-armed Iran.
The letter to President Obama, from 24 signatories whose professional careers have often been marked by dealing firsthand with the thorny Iran issue, suggests that a diplomatic deal can ease the West's greatest fears about Iran's nuclear program – but only if Washington revises its position in nuclear talks that are expected to resume within weeks.
"A diplomacy-centric approach is the only option that can prevent an Iranian nuclear weapon and a war," write the 24 signatories in the Dec. 6 letter only now made public. Success will require "reciprocal" steps and an "appropriate and proportional paring back of international sanctions on Iran," they write.
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The letter proposes a deal that Tehran has signaled repeatedly in the past year it is willing to accept, given the right circumstances: stopping production of 20 percent enriched uranium, which is a few technical steps away from bomb-grade; and allowing a more intrusive inspections regime. In exchange, Tehran wants recognition of its right to enrich for peaceful purposes and a lifting of sanctions.
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But the appeal to Mr. Obama comes as Congress prepares to enact further sanctions against Iran in coming days. And news reports indicate that the US has already decided not to fundamentally change a negotiating stance, rejected by Iran in previous rounds of talks this year, which demands Iran make concessions before the US entertains any prospect of sanctions relief.
US STAYS ITS COURSE
Overall goals for the US and other members of the P5+1 (Russia, China, Britain, France, and German), the letter advises, should be "restricting – not permanently suspending" Iran's enrichment levels to below 5 percent and accounting for past weapons-related work.
"We encourage you to direct your team vigorously to pursue serious, sustained negotiations with the Iranian government on an arrangement that guards against a nuclear-armed Iran," states the letter. "With greater determination, creativity, and persistence, we believe such a deal is within reach."
Among the signatories are ranking former US diplomatic officials Thomas Pickering, James Dobbins, John Limbert, and Chas Freeman. They include Rolf Ekeus, the Swedish former director of UNSCOM in Iraq; former senior British diplomats Sir Richard Dalton and Peter Jenkins, as well as other European ambassadors; and big names from the US military and intelligence, Gen. Joseph Hoar, Brig. Gen. John Johns, Larry Korb, and Paul Pillar.
The letter was organized by Daryl Kimball at the Arms Control Association and Trita Parsi at the National Iranian American Council, both based in Washington.
Nuclear talks between Iran and the P5+1 began last spring in Istanbul, but subsequent rounds in Baghdad and Moscow played out like a game of chicken, with each side demanding that the other act first.
On the P5+1 side, the "offer" put on the table earlier this year – which US and European diplomats say privately they would never accept for themselves, if they were in Iran's position – was widely deemed to have been a necessity of the White House before the Nov. 6, presidential election, so that Obama would not be open to accusations that he was "soft" on Iran by offering concessions.
But the probability of a more flexible P5+1 position after the election appears to be dwindling, at least judging by signals from Washington.
"Following US presidential elections, US officials began mulling a more generous proposal but have settled for a conservative position," wrote Barbara Slavin in Al-Monitor, a Middle East online news publication, yesterday. "Iran will be expected to agree to concessions before knowing exactly what it would get in return."
The "refreshed" proposal would lift a ban on spare parts for Iran's aging jetliners, and include technical assistnce for Iran's civilian nuclear program, "but no specific promise of sanctions relief," reports Al-Monitor.
On Dec. 14, The Washington Post quoted a senior US official saying that Iran might be "ready to make a deal," but that the basic offer had not changed: "The package has the same bone structure, but with some slightly different tattoos."
The Post reported that US officials said the deal held out the eventual possibility of a "grand bargain," in which sanctions could be eased and "permanent limits" set on Iran's nuclear program.
SANCTIONS' DIMINISHING RETURNS
Iran has rejected the offer before, and some Iran analysts suggest that such an "all sticks and no carrot" proposal – as it is seen in Tehran – is unlikely to result in a deal.
In the run-up to the next round of talks, possibly in January, Iran has sent mixed signals. Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi said on Dec. 17, that both sides "have concluded that they have to exit the current impasse," and that Iran wants "its legitimate and legal right [to enrichment] and no more."
The next day, however, the head of Iran's nuclear program said Iran would not give up its 20 percent enrichment.
While that position may be posturing – signals have been plentiful in the past year that Iran plans to "trade" its 20 percent card at the table – it complicates the diplomatic track and gives ammunition to those in Congress who want more sanctions.
A recent report endorsed by 38 eminent Americans, including former diplomats, general and political leaders, examined the cost and benefits of the US-led sanctions regime already levied against Iran, which now target Iran's central bank and its lifeblood oil exports.
Some of the unilateral American measures have been voted on unanimously, and many limit Obama's diplomatic latitude by allowing only Congress to lift them, not the president. The new measures under consideration now would be attached to a much larger defense bill.
"Inflexibly imposed, escalating sanctions begin to lose their value as leverage to elicit change in Iranian policy, including on nuclear issues," the report warned.
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